| Christopher Reina. 19th March, 2008 - 2:38 pm
 How quickly New England can throwaway 86 seasons of grief-stricken baseball and believe that winning the World Series is now the manifest destiny of the Boston Red Sox.
With such a wisely constructed team, unarguably balanced in all areas and mixed with high talent and high guts players, it is difficult to not believe the Red Sox can become the first team in this new century to repeat.
2007 Record: 96-66
2007 Pythagorean Record: 101-61
Team FIC Batting: 9.84 per game (2nd overall)
Team FIC Pitching: 10.43 per game (1st overall)
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What Happened Last Season
At the plate: David Ortiz once again gave it a puncher’s chance at historically winning the MVP as a DH by batting .332/.446/.621. He had the third best season FIC behind Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez and a very good +63% Reina Value.
Mike Lowell had a very unexpectedly awesome .324/.378/.501 and seemingly got every clutch hit imaginable though the statistical evidence doesn’t support that. But in the postseason, Lowell had a .353/.410/.608 with two homers and 16 RBIs and became Boston’s unresisting central leader.
Manny Ramirez, as he always does, alternated between being bewildering and brilliant at the plate by batting .296/.388/.493. It was his lowest slugging season in his career and had fewer than 100 RBIs for the first time since ’97.
Dustin Pedroia unpredictably won the ROY by going .317/.380/.442 after it looked like he wouldn’t stick at Fenway in April when he hit .182 with a .544 OPS.
Kevin Youkilis won a Gold Glove and had a career-high .843 OPS. He was especially clutch for Boston in the hard-fought ALCS, hitting .500 with a .929 slugging percentage as he hit three homeruns.
J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo had disappointing seasons for the Red Sox following their high-priced free agent signings.
Coco Crisp found himself displaced by the evidently surefire future star Jacoby Ellsbury. In 127 regular season plate appearances, he posted a excellent .353/.394/.509 and was even more awesome in the postseason when he went .360/.429/.520.
On the mound: Josh Beckett continued his proclivity for dominating October by allowing just four earned runs over 30 innings (1.20 ERA) and winning all four of his starts. He was even remarkably durable, throwing 200 innings for the second consecutive season. He had the third best FIC per start (8.55).
Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn’t quite as dominant as the pre-arrival hype would suggest he would become, but he had nearly one strikeout per inning.
Curt Schilling was a Shannon Stewart 2-out, ninth inning hit away from a no-hitter and had a sub-4.00 ERA for the 15th time in his career.
Tim Wakefield gave Boston 189 innings, Jon Lester made a feel-good comeback and Clay Buchholz threw an improbable no-hitter in his second career start.
Out of the pen, Boston was overwhelmingly dominant, posting a 3.10 ERA in 447 innings.
Jonathan Papelbon had a 1.85 ERA and 37 saves while Hideki Okajima was Tito Francona’s best Japanese rookie pitcher with his 2.22 ERA. Javier Lopez, Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen and Kyle Snyder were also indispensable.
What Happened In The Offseason
Unlike the previous offseason when they expensively acquired Matsuzaka, Drew and Lugo, Theo Epstein focused on preserving his core by re-signing Lowell and Schilling.
Lowell signed a three-year, $37.5 million contract, giving Boston a hometown/World Series discount as he reportedly left $50 million over four-years from Philadelphia on the table.
They also signed scrap heap reclamation projects in Sean Casey and Bartolo Colon, both of whom already appear to be valuable members of their club.
What Could Happen This Season
At the plate: A lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell, Youkilis, Drew, Varitek and Lugo will certainly score plenty of runs though I project them scoring less than Detroit and the Yankees. They had very good health in 2007, with each of their regulars playing at least 133 games and they especially need Ortiz and Ramirez anchoring the middle of their lineup. I love the hitters on either side of those two more for how they complement them rather than how they are as stand-alones.
Crisp is certainly on the trading block, but I would keep him as Ellsbury insurance in case his fall back towards earth is greater than imagined and also to rest Ramirez and Drew. Reaching the playoffs isn’t guaranteed these days, but this team is more geared for October than any other and Crisp allows Francona to be comfortably mindful of that.
On the mound: Losing Schilling for what looks like it could be the entire season takes a lot of teeth out of their rotation.
I still don’t trust Beckett to make more than 25-30 starts, but Matsuzaka should lower his home ERA and continue to eat innings.
Lester and Buchholz appear ready for full time work and are likely to have ERAs no lower than 3.50 and higher than 4.50.
Papelbon and the bullpen crew look as poised as ever and their only real danger could come if they’re overtaxed.
What Should Happen This Season
Only a combination of injuries to Ortiz and Beckett can really derail Boston’s season. They were playoff shoo-ins all the way back in June last year before coasting through the remainder of the regular season, so they will not be afforded the luxury of rest heading into October.
They are galvanized to win but are far from bulletproof.
Five biggest questions
1. How will Ortiz’s surgically repaired knee hold up?
2. Is Beckett fully out of his blister phase?
3. Will Matsuzaka become more comfortable at Fenway?
4. Can Manny regain his dominance?
5. How improved is the rest of the AL?
Prediction: 96-66
More 2008 Season Previews
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Miwaukee Brewers
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- San Francisco Giants
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value. |
