| Derek Bodner. 15th December, 2009 - 8:39 pm
 Whenever a legitimate World Series team acquires one of the top three pitchers in the game, while giving up nothing that contributed to their World Series runs the previous two years, the baseball world tunes in.
When two former CY Young winners exchange hands it becomes a blockbuster.
Three teams at three different levels of of contention with three different agendas. Which one came out the best?
The Phillies intention in acquiring Roy Halladay is clear. Having won the NL pennant two years running and with a core presently in their prime acquiring perhaps the top right-handed pitcher in the game is of obvious interest. Roy Halladay has been the apple in Ruben Amaro Jr's eye for a while, including at the trading deadline last year. The fact that they can acquire a pitcher of his caliber and lock him up for four years (his one remaining year with a three-year extension, with a vesting option on a 4th year) at an arguably below market value contract is an opportunity that doesn't present itself every day.
Halladay has a no trade clause, and being legitimate contenders and having their Spring Training facility within virtual walking distance of his home put the Phillies on his short list. Even after the Cliff Lee trade last year, the Phillies have the talent accumulated in the minor leagues, and the potential fit was obvious.
But why, essentially, in place of Cliff Lee?
Two main reasons:
- 2009 payroll. The Phillies payroll has jumped from just over $100 million on opening day 2008 to nearly $140 million to end 2009. Even with 42 consecutive sellouts and Phillies merchandise littering the streets of Philadelphia, there is a limit. It appears they've reached that limit. With this trade the Blue Jays are sending $6 million in cash, which along with the outbound Cliff Lee's salary covers Roy Halladay's 2009 salary almost completely.
- Restocking the farm system. With the combined Lee and Halladay trade the Phillies would have sent out seven of their top 10 prospects from the 2009 Baseball America list in Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson to Cleveland and Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek and Travis D'Arnaud in the Halladay trade. Those prospects would have netted the Phillies a lot of talent in Lee, Ben Francisco and Halladay, but also a lot of age (those three would have been 31, 28 and 33 by June of the 2010 season). That would have been a hefty price, both in the financial sense and in talent.
When rumors came out that the Phillies were leading the way in Halladay sweepstakes Philadelphia went abuzz in a frenzy, envisioning Halladay, Lee and Hamels forming potentially the best starting rotation in Phillies history. That may have set unrealistic expectations. Because of that, enthusiasm for this trade is now somewhat tempered. Acquiring Halladay while retaining Lee might have been greedy, but had it not been for some previous mistakes it may have been doable, at least from a financial sense. Lee at his $9 million salary for next year is a bargain, and the fact that he had to be moved to accommodate Halladay's salary addition is disappointing.
The mistake last offseason of re-signing Jamie Moyer to a two-year deal is looming ever large, and may be the reason Lee had to be dealt. Even with that mistake, had the Phillies come to terms on a Halladay trade earlier in the offseason they could have not tendered Joe Blanton, who is likely to get a contract in the $7 million range. The dream could have been a reality.
Shoulda-woulda-coulda's aside, once it became obvious that Lee and Halladay were an either/or situation, the choice became obvious. Besides the fact that Halladay is a better pitcher, and has been consistently excellent for a longer time than Lee, he's also agreeable to a three-year (with a vested option on a 4th) contract extension at a below market value. Lee, on the other hand, is intent on allowing the free agent market to determine his worth, which meant the Phillies stood the very real chance of having him leave for only the compensatory draft picks a Type A free agency (as Lee most assuredly will be) would garner. Four years of Halladay is worth significantly more than one of Lee. Making this trade will improve the Phillies in 2010 marginally, and drastically for the following three years.
That's not to say this isn't without risk. It is, and fairly significantly in that. Unlike the Lee trade at the 2009 trade deadline, the Phillies gave up their top prospects in the Halladay deal, parting ways with what most consider to be their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rated prospects, two of which could see the majors this season in the form of Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek. Besides the talent these three possess that's also giving away up to six years that they would have them under control, salary wise. This poses a significant financial risk to the Phillies in addition to the inherent risk in allocating $20 million per year to a pitcher in their mid-30's. The Phillies have a budget they have proven to be up against and important contributors (Jayson Werth and Joe Blanton) due to have their contracts expire after next year, which much more following the 2011 season. Young contributors still on their affordable rookie contracts is the best way to help offset the annual raises to core players, and both Taylor and Drabek had the very real chance of being ready to contribute by the tail end of 2010.
The prospects the Phillies brought in from Seattle are a mixed bag, at best roughly equivalent to the talent the Phillies sent out to acquire Lee during the midseason trade. Phillippe Aumont is Seattle's former #1 pick, and was rated in Baseball America's top 100 prospects heading into the 2009 season, but his move to the bullpen lessens his potential value. This becomes even more of a concern from the rumors that he was moved there because of a degenerative hip condition that prevents Aumont from throwing starters innings. Aumont has admitted to his hip being a problem, although he has denied that it is either degenerative or the impetus for his move to the bullpen. If Aumont can be converted back to a starter his value increases significantly. If not, the hope is he can develop into a closer down the line.
Tyson Gillies is a 21-year-old outfield prospect who put up very good numbers in the High-A California League, which has to be tempered by the fact that the league is generally considered to be extremely hitter friendly. It's unlikely he projects to have any significant power potential, but his speed and plate discipline keep him as a prospect with at least some potential. If he starts the season at AA Reading the Phillies should have a much better guage on his future role on the team.
The last prospect the Phillies received is J.C. Ramirez, who reportedly has plus-stuff, but so far has not gotten the results to place him as a top level prospect. At 21 as well, he still has time to turn it around, but he is most assuredly a ways away.
On the positive, the Phillies did retain Domonic Brown, the player they have pegged as their top positional prospect and the one piece they were unwilling to give away. Brown is further away from the big leagues than Michael Taylor, but with the Phillies returning three All-star outfielders and having Ben Francisco in the fold as a legitimate 4th outfielder, that may be a good thing. Most scouts believe that Brown has a higher upside than Taylor, and the Phillies don't have an immediate need for an outfielder unless Jayson Werth leaves, which is at least a year away.
The key, in the end, was Kyle Drabek. Drabek was the piece the Blue Jays wanted during the season, and the one the Phillies were reluctant to give away. The reality that Lee was going to test free agency, along with the ability to get Halladay signed long term, apparently was enough for the Phillies to reconsider. Drabek come back from Tommy John surgery on fire last year, and his loss is the one most likely to sting in coming years.
The inability to retain Lee and form a monster of a rotation is a little disappointing, and could have potentially been avoided. If the Phillies had been able to clear (or non-tender) Blanton and Chad Durbin, it may have been a reality even with the Jammie Moyer mistake from the previous offseason. Had they been able to clear the salary to do so under their self-imposed cap, I would have much rather gone into 2010 with Halladay, Lee and Hamels, and let Lee walk in free agency and receive the compensatory picks in exchange. Once you get past that and realize that they weren't going to be able to do that, the Phillies did end up with one of the top three best pitchers in baseball, locked into a below market value contract for the next four years, and received enough talent back in the Lee-to-Seattle trade to arguably make up for the talent they gave up to Cleveland to get Lee last year. The trio of Halladay, Hamels, and last year's NL Rookie of the Year runner-up J.A. Happ should form a starting rotation that can compete with anyone for the next few years, and the nucleus of the team, if held together, should be in their prime during the duration of Halladay's contract. This move comes with potential risks, not only because of the talent they gave up but perhaps more importantly the financial difficulties this trade has potentially made worse. Even so, if the Phillies are able to keep this nucleus together, this trade only increases their odds of contending for another World Championship.
Grade for Phillies: B+
Seattle's addition of Cliff Lee for relative peanuts will always be viewed as a great acquisition, even if it is only for one season. Along with the addition Chone Figgins, as well as the turbulent offseason the Angels have gone through, it may be enough to catapult the Mariners into serious AL West contention, and if it does that the Mariners will come away runaway winners. The combination of Lee and Felix Hernandez at the top of Seattle's rotation is as good as anyone in the league, and should keep them in a lot of ballgames. Whether their anemic offense (last in the AL in runs per game last year) can improve enough to make them serious playoff contenders is the question. Figgins over an injured (and ineffective when he did play) Beltre should help stabilize things somewhat.
Grade for Mariners: A-
Toronto was asking for Brown, Taylor, and Drabek/Happ last year at the deadline. They ended up getting two from that grouping, including the Phillies best pitching prospect and two of their three best positional prospects, despite the fact that the Halladay could contribute to one less playoff run before hitting free agency and had a short list teams he would approve a trade to. Because of that, this trade has to be a success, even if the result had more to do with Halladay's willingness to negotiate a long term deal than anything Toronto directly did to increase his value between the trade deadline and now. Drabek is the centerpiece of the deal, and while he's not a sure thing (no pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery is, particularly a minor leaguer who hasn't pitched above AA), he has looked very good since coming back from injury and is sure to jump way up in minor league rankings. There's an outside chance both could hit the big leagues next year, moreso for Taylor than Drabek, and the Blue Jays should have a fairly high chance of seeing productivity from both of them at some point in the future. D'Arnaud is a viable catching prospect, albeit one a few years away. The report is the Blue Jays may flip Taylor for Brett Wallace of the Athletics, a very highly rated third baseman acquired in the Matt Holliday trade. That may not be the level of talent some Blue Jays fans had hoped for, but considering their loss of leverage in negotiations the Blue Jays would see as Halladay approached free agency was probably about as good as they could have hoped for. Were they better off accepting some of the opposing offers received at the trade deadline last year? That's going to be the big question gnawing at Blue Jays fans in years to come.
Grade for Blue Jays: B
Derek Bodner can be reached at derek.bodner@phillyarena.com |
